Confidence, Evidence, and Disagreement

Peer Disagreement and Total Evidence

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Peer Disagreement and Higher Order Evidence

Disagreement as Evidence: The Epistemology of Controversy

How much should your confidence in your beliefs be shaken when you learn that others – perhaps ‘epistemic peers’ who seem as well-qualified as you are – hold beliefs contrary to yours? This article describes motivations that push different philosophers towards opposite answers to this question. It identifies a key theoretical principle that divides current writers on the epistemology of disagre...

Disagreement and evidence production in strategic information transmission

We expand Crawford and Sobel’s (1982) model of information transmission to allow for the costly provision of ‘hard evidence’ in addition to conventional cheap talk. Under mild assumptions we prove that equilibria have an interval-partition structure, where types of the Sender belonging to the same interval either all induce the same action through cheap talk or reveal their types through hard e...

Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change

A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or repl...